VL: You have just returned from DC talking about investment in the private space industry. What are your impressions? Are the efforts of space advocates too far ambitious given the current economic situation? And what about the relationship between "NewSpace" and the traditional aerospace and defense industry. Is the space business splitting between big players like Boeing and EADS Astrium on one side, and the emerging entrepreneurial companies on the other?
WP: We are in a phenomenally interesting time in the space community. We are seeing several key factors all coming together at the same time: an increasingly international pool of space producers and consumers; an emerging entrepreneurial space community that brings in new innovators and new investors; and a shift in national priorities in the space industry. Here in the USA, we have the added excitement of a new President, a new NASA Administrator, and the Augustine Commission, a panel chartered to examine everything about the human spaceflight program.
There’s no way to know for certain exactly what will emerge from this moment. But what’s clear to me is that the industry will be best served if we find a way for space agencies, traditional aerospace contractors, and these emerging entrepreneurial firms to work together. To some extent, we’ll need to just figure out the best division of labor, as each of those groups has its own strengths and weaknesses. The small companies are not an instant cure for all of the problems in the industry—but we’ve also seen that without those small companies, it will be very hard for the industry to continue on a sustainable path.
VL: The Progressive Automotive X PRIZE and the Archon X PRIZE for Genomics perhaps get less public attention than the X PRIZE Foundation's space efforts, but I find them to be equally important. In fact, the innovations in these fields--energy-efficient vehicles and radically cheaper DNA analysis--can immediately make an impact on millions of people, probably even faster than the more charismatic "space races". But the response you've gotten to these prizes--111 teams in the Automotive X PRIZE, and at least seven teams competing in highly demanding Genomics X PRIZE--indicates that these are important and exciting stories, too, doesn't it?
WP: It is an honor for me to work at the X PRIZE Foundation especially because of the wide variety of issues we deal with. As you’ve mentioned, the Archon X PRIZE for Genomics in particular does not receive the level of public attention that it deserves. Largely, this is because there is no attractive and easy-to-understand visual image—whereas a magazine or a television program will happily show a photograph of a rocket, a lunar robot, or a sexy car, the images associated with the Archon X PRIZE are generally just computers, machinery, and scientists in white lab coats. Thankfully, though, this prize is definitely attracting the right attention among the community of individuals most likely to meet the challenge. I have friends and loved ones who work in the biotech industry, for example, and they talk about this prize all the time.
The response to our Progressive Automotive X PRIZE was overwhelming—much greater than we’d expected! Clearly, we’ve touched on an issue that is important to people all around the world. But we’ve also given a challenge that is really appealing to a huge number of “garage engineers” – people around the world are fanatic about car racing, and many people are starting to modify their cars to improve not just performance but fuel efficiency. We’ve really struck a nerve for so many of those people, and I think that’s what has lead to the fantastic response.
VL: Five years have now passed since the already historic flight of Burt Rutan's SpaceShipOne. What we have learned from this great achievement? That sometimes, "simpler is better?" That "ideas will always conquer"? That interest for space was boosted among common people and cautious investors, too? After the dot-com bubble and the mortgage crisis, everyone is now aware that an apparent investment bonanza can become an over-blown balloon over night. The space entrepreneurship community is still in diapers, so to speak, meaning that we still need someone -- governments, private investors, or some other group --to sink a lot of capital before we start seeing the full benefits. How can we sustain this need for investment without risking a 'space bubble'--and also without draining the investment pool prior to seeing the real results? Is there a danger of unbalanced goals that will exhaust competitors, and lead to 'one-off' efforts, rather than a sustainable industry?
WP: It is hard to believe that is has been five years, isn’t it? In so many ways, it feels like Brian Binnie was rocketing off and the champagne was being poured just days ago.
At the X PRIZE Foundation, our slogan is “Revolution Through Competition.” We believe that competition is a healthy thing, not only in the context of our prizes, but in the free and open markets that exist after (if not before) our prizes are won. Of course, a part of competition is failure—when innovators, investors, and entrepreneurs sense that a new market or a new niche has opened up, many players will rush in to fill it, and not all of those will be successful. This can obviously be a tragedy on a personal level for those who backed the wrong teams, but this is a very healthy and useful thing overall. It is through this competition, and through the threat of failure and obsolescence that the emerging players will find ways to best customize their offerings.
What we need to be wary of in the space industry is an overall damaging of the reputation of the field from companies that promise too much and deliver too little. We’ve certainly had that happen many times in the past. Thankfully, I feel that we are not at that point any more: most companies, and certainly the perceived market leaders, are being quite careful to only make promises they can reasonably deliver upon.
What the Ansari X PRIZE taught us was that there are indeed companies out there that are capable of performing such a difficult job, and that there are indeed willing customers eager to take advantage of emerging capabilities. The burden is now on the teams and on the markets to help sort out who will ultimately be successful. The Ansari X PRIZE rules were successful, I feel, in that they required a sufficiently impressive milestone while still being open to a variety of solutions—which means, in the end, a variety of market niches.
VL: What does it feel like to in the middle of such dynamics? Do you have to live day-by-day, inventing what is necessary on the run? Or do you have time just to stand aside and make personal (and, why not, emotional) review of the work done? Does the family suffer? Private life? Do you have close friends who really aren't interested in what do you do, but share with you "common content of life"?
WP: I love my job! What good fortune to be in such a place where I can interact with brilliant and charismatic individuals from all around the world, and where I can always be on the cutting edge in some important and (just as importantly) cool industries! Working at the X PRIZE Foundation, I have the nice benefit of being “on the winning team,” regardless of which team that might be. It’s a good situation to be in.
That said, it is hard work. There are long hours, certainly, and challenging problems that often don’t seem to have any solution. Balancing the needs of a large number of teams who often have different interests—plus the need to be completely objective and fair—is a challenge. Of course, we’re also a non-profit, so we are continually in search of the funding we need to continue offering these prizes and to use them to their maximum effective as educational tools and agents of change. I’m incredibly fortunate to have a wonderful fiancée who is just as driven and dedicated as I am—she works at NASA/JPL, so helps me see the government space agency side of the equation whenever I start to get too focused on the entrepreneurial side. I know I’ve been dealt a very lucky set of cards, so I’m trying to make the most of it.
William Pomerantz (2): Second part of the Interview
The modern day impact of Lindbergh's victory and of Orteig's prize is certainly enormous--aviation is a trillion dollar industry, and it's difficult to say it would be that way without Lindbergh.
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