VJEROJATNOST IZNOSI 34 POSTO

Na kladionicama favorit za novog papu talijanski kardinal Pietro Parolin

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Autor
Antonio Mandir
23.04.2025.
u 09:35
Talijanski kardinal smatra se bliskim papi Franji, a javno govori o globalnim temama poput klime i iskorištavanja slabijih
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Papa Franjo preminuo je na Uskrsni ponedjeljak – sada započinje stoljetni ritual tajnog izbora sljedećeg nositelja službe čelnika Katoličke crkve (konklava). Tko će pobijediti, pitaju se i kladionice. Po kladionicama postoji favorit, ali ne i jasan pobjednik. Na online kladioničarskoj platformi Polymarket sudionici su već uložili više od 3,5 milijuna američkih dolara. Najviše novca uloženo je na kardinala Pietra Parolina. Njegova “vjerojatnost pobjede” iznosi 34 posto, što znači da onaj tko uloži 100 eura, može dobiti 294 eura natrag – povrat je 194 posto, piše njemački Bild. Taj talijanski kardinal politički se smatra bliskim papi Franji, a javno govori o globalnim temama poput klime i iskorištavanja slabijih. Istospolne brakove strogo odbacuje, u skladu s crkvenom tradicijom.

Ostali “papabili” (kandidati “sposobni” postati papom), koji su u krugu favorita prema kladioničarima s Polymarketa, još su liberalniji: Filipinac Luis Antonio Tagle (23 posto vjerojatnosti) slobodnije tumači katolički nauk, uključujući i pitanja homoseksualnog braka, te je na sam Uskrsni ponedjeljak još uvijek bio favorit broj 1 među kladioničarima. Također se kao ozbiljan kandidat spominje Talijan Matteo Zuppi (69), koji se smatra još liberalnijim. Britanske kladionice gledaju na “utrku” djelomično drukčije: kod Paddypowera, šanse za Parolina stoje na 6 prema 4 (40 posto). Kod William Hilla, Parolin i Tagle su izjednačeni, svaki s vjerojatnošću od 7 prema 4 (36,4 posto).

Među favoritima na Polymarketu nalazi se samo jedan konzervativni crkveni predstavnik: Mađar Péter Erdő (72). Onaj tko danas uloži na njega, može u slučaju pobjede deseterostruko umnožiti svoj ulog, budući da njegove šanse za papinstvo trenutačno iznose nešto ispod 10 posto. Kod William Hilla njegovi izgledi stoje na 8 prema 1 (11,1 posto). Kladioničari s Polymarketa gotovo su jednoglasni u procjeni da će sljedeći papa doći iz Europe (vjerojatnost 65 posto). To znači: tko danas uloži na Stari kontinent i bude u pravu, ostvarit će povrat od 53,8 posto na svoj ulog.

GALERIJA FOTO Pogledajte Franjin život u slikama: Autsajder koji je okrenuo leđa raskoši, a karizmom je osvojio svijet

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Ključne riječi
Pietro Parolin kladionice papa Franjo
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Komentari 1

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Avatar rubinet
rubinet
10:42 23.04.2025.

Znači, očito je, kandidati su liberal, malo liberalniji, malo više liberalniji i najliberalniji.

Još iz rubrike Vijesti